Originally Posted by
BigZ
Expecting class numbers to drop off suddenly and measurably due to Endeavor rates/displacement bid/Spirit new contract etc is just setting yourself up for disappointment.
Figure the average interview to class of 1.5 - 2 months. Another couple of weeks between submitting the app to the interview day before that. So it takes about 2.5 months from any particular change to see the effect on the class numbers. Then take the percentage of people you think will be turned off by that change, divide it by twelve*, and that's your number of people who decided not to apply.
*the universal opinion to reality factor constant
I don’t doubt that they’ll continue to fill classes. Anyone who thinks that we’re weeks away from a class of very few NHs will be very disappointed when the numbers come out. The problem is that filling classes with new FOs doesn’t solve Envoy’s current (and near future) staffing needs. Spirit’s new contract and Endeavor’s new rates will affect the number of pilots with 1000+ hours of 121 time looking to jump laterally to Envoy.