Originally Posted by
AZPilotMike
I don’t believe anyone is saying mainline is hiring everyone off the streets right now.
Not from folks actively in the industry, but as the OP said, he has zero 121 time. When I was a flight instructor weighing my regional airline options, at least where I was at, the overarching theme was "There's a pilot shortage, so go to the place that gets you the quickest upgrade time so you can get PIC and get hired at a major." That's terrible advice.
Let's just say for the sake of argument that there's a 24-year old flight instructor out there with 1000/1250/1500 hours looking to go to a regional. And for the sake of argument, let's just say that flow time is (worst case scenario) 10 years. You can go to a place with no flow and bank on the assumption that the majors are going to get into a hiring crunch and hire anyone that is able to maintain a body temperature somewhere roughly in the 90's. But to me that's rolling the dice with your future. Nobody knows what the future holds, particularly in this industry.
Alternatively, you can go to a place with flow. If you still want to roll the dice, you can roll the dice and try to get on with AA OTS or another major OTS. But in your back pocket, worst case scenario, you're on with AA with 30 years of flying left ahead of you. Seems to me to be a no-brainer. Unless you have crippling debt as a 24-year old and other regionals are offering significantly more pay or you're returning to the industry as a 40 year old, flow is the best choice. No sense in rolling the dice with the first 10 years of your pilot career at the expense of the next 30. That's why Envoy classes are still full even when recruitment is being honest about flow time.