I don’t know who you are quoting as nobody in this thread said you’d get “most” of it back.

Guys this isn’t hard.
25% is withheld initially. Only when you file will you then know your income tax rate for that year. That bonus will be taxed accordingly.
If your effective tax rate is <25% = appropriate refund.
>25% = you have to write a check (depending)

What the hell is a HVA?