Originally Posted by ryane946
As someone who loves to make predictions, I still can't make a prediction on the entire industry in 6 years.
I will however chime in on the VLJ's. I think they will be popular in 6 years. I think there is an incredible market for VLJ's, and I think you will see large numbers of them flying in 6 years. I believe Eclipse has gotten over 2200 orders for their VLJ, and the A-700 is selling much faster than Adam aircraft predicted. There was an interesting thread about VLJ's in the corporate forum that I would suggest reading. Just search VLJ and I think it was called Article of VLJ's.
I agree for the most part, however the economic viability of those things is a little fuzzy due to labor costs...any FBO operator at a small field knows he can find a dozen CFIs willing to fly a ME turbine aircraft for essentially nothing...this perception may have caused the VLJ visionaries to under-estimate their actual labor costs. Insurance is going to end up requiring 2 pilots, one of whom has significant turbojet experience...2000+ microjets will dry up that talent pool real quick-like.
The good news is that if the air-taxis take off, they will create pilot jobs, and create a high-demand at the regional FO level. I could see regionals having to pay signing bonuses to attract new-hires...why sit reserve at a sh*tty regional for peanuts in some east coast toilet when you can get glass turbojet time at the home patch?
Air-taxis should attract some folks who would have driven otherwise, and even if they steal significant airline pax, well then you have 2 pilots flying 1-4 pax around instead of flying 30-90 pax...big net gain in pilot jobs.
As for owner-operators, they will have a rigorous transition program culminating in an IOE phase with a baby-sitter...and for many of those owners I suspect the IOE will last forever...more pilot jobs!
Time will tell.