The main points have been made already. But, likely this is a kitchen table discussion with your significant other. The seniority spectrum will continue to move at both airlines, and with only 1.5 years invested at UAL you haven't wasted any significant time at the U.

I used to do a double commute to both EWR and CLE out of BTR and MSY. It was a hard life. That was before having kids. If you have a family, then the decision is easy. What was helpful to me was we wanted to leave S. Louisiana, so moving to a CAL base in the mid 90's was an easy decision as long as it didn't involve a snow shovel.

If you live in the MCO area and you want to stay there then it's an easy choice I think. I recall a guy at CAL that was a 17 year pilot who left for SWA. Don't know how it turned out, but here's the kicker; he lived in Chicago and his wife gave him an ultimatum to live in base. Too bad he didn't get a heads up on the merger.....