Originally Posted by
FlyingHercs
What you'll notice is I didn't ask "how long to upgrade to CA at x?". That indeed will change. By having the seniority number of the junior CA (or FO) at each base, coupled with mandatory retirements and projected growth, I'd argue you can get a fairly decent projection of when a domicile might become available.
I understand your point, however, ten years in a long time in the airline business and so much can change. Just at Southwest, there was a time not so long ago that Dallas was senior. It was "known" that if you wanted to be based in Dallas you'd wait a long time. Right now Dallas is really no more senior then any other base. After the AT purchase ATL FO was really really senior. New hires in the 2014-2017 range were told that the wait for ATL would be 5-6-7 years. Today it takes less than a year to hold ATL FO. It went from years to one year in couple bids.
The legacies are going to retire so many that the picture will shift even more for them. So I think you have to look at things in general.
For example, want to be based in Denver? Southwest is probably your best bet. Want to upgrade fast? That's going to happen faster elsewhere. Want to have more days off? Southwest. Want to sit reserve and not work...not Southwest.