Originally Posted by
Fleet Warp
I predict that the regionals that still exist in 5 years will be the ones without a fatal accident. As for the rest, even if they don't exist in name the pilots and airplanes will still exist under someone else's name after a M&A. And this.
I predict that - barring a really severe recession or oil price shock - the current crop of regional pilots are going to be fine. The regional pilots acceptable to the majors will soon move on, their careers buoyed by the wave of age-related mandatory requirements coming. The regional pilots NOT acceptable by by the majors for whatever reason (inadequate education, DUIs, training busts, embarrassing tattoos in non-concealable areas, etc) will either find employment with some ULCC or become so senior at their regional they will be bulletproof.
Those in trouble will be those only now starting to get their ratings, convinced that the current good climate for career progression will last forever. Even sponsored ab initio people, should that actually happen, are at risk for their programs coming to a screeching halt when progression disappears for a half decade.