Originally Posted by
mcnitchell
Why are you figuring there will be a recession in the next two years? I am also considering applying for the regionals (Skywest or Compass in particular). I currently have a comfy desk job in the LA area making a good living and a great schedule. I left the airlines 14 years ago after everything went downhill post 9-11. I stayed current, flying GA, and still have my CFI. But that desire to go back to the 121 world has never left me. My wife (and 3 kids) are on board as well, since we've been discussing it for a year. We've been looking to get out of California, and this was our planned exit.
I hope I haven't missed the wave and I'm to late!
There will be some sort of slowdown eventually, it's inevitable.
The economy might just overheat and mush out for a while if nothing else happens. There's always the possibility of war or some sort of "black swan" event (ie 9/11) that might trigger a more significant downturn.
Baring a big catastrophe, I suspect the retirement numbers will mostly mitigate the effects of any slowdown on pilot career progression. You might stagnate somewhere for a couple years but that's probably the worst of it.
Yes the economy is humming along, but it's not showing signs of ridiculous exuberance.
My neighbor, who does residential real estate, noted a new paradigm.
In 2005, people were desperate to get on the speculative escalator before it left them behind.
Today, they are far more reluctant to buy expensive property, mostly only doing it for lifestyle reasons and only if they can afford it, not because they expect a windfall.