My .02 but my take is that is more of a "you shouldn't expect a 20 year career without one" vs you will do one. There are far two many variables between MDS not to mention AFSC to make a blanket across the board statement like that and have it mean anything. Fighter bubbas already live that world because of Korea, I just don't see it happening for tanker/transport. Yes if you go to school (big if) there is enormous pressure to go do a CENTCOM tour (one year or 365) right out, to give them the benefit of the "best and brightest," but the majority of us lowly schlubs aren't good enough for school and miss the pressure of that kind of career reward completely.

I'm in that career window now, granted I already have a short tour but I saw no kind of push/threat during my PCS last summer from AFPC, my CC or MAJCOM. My friends in school....yeah they're getting a lot of it, but that's them. School has always opened up a lot of doors for people, including many no one wanted opened. Even if every AF 05 position over there goes to one year, including the PRTs, there aren't enough slots to say "everyone will go." Plus a lot of those slots are CC type billets, and dang it but most of us just aren't good enough.

Then again, ask me in five years, we'll see if I was right.