Originally Posted by
RhinoBallAuto
That was exactly my point... you can't make the argument that PHX is immune from closure solely because it is getting 777 service to somewhere. They don't need a base of any flavor there in order to start that kind of flying, hence the RDU example. That being said, I'll grant you it will may need some sort of feeder service in order to accomplish that (I have no idea what sort of local demand PHX would generate for LHR).
In the end, I don't see PHX closing as a base/domicile at all. Hawaii is too lucrative, as evidenced by 32X plans. Not to mention all the reserve comments highlighted above.
I’ll say no base, except DFW less a full AA shutdown, is immune to closure. PHX has just been in the bullseye by some people for years, because of hard feelings. That said, and being pragmatic, the 321NX plan, and specifically to Hawaii out of PHX, is a concern to me and I think to the base. I see the 321NX being a wild card. The 321H is very limited out of LIH and Maui and that’s to LAX. The 321NX does not have a much higher takeoff performance capability then the 321H. Regarding fuel performance, yes it is way better, but it’s not more powerful, just more fuel efficient. The 321NX has more seats (heavier) and I think the LEAP engines are heavier as well. If flights coming out of Hawaii on the 321NX are weight restricted to PHX, then the whole concept of using it over the 757 is a waste. If it’s not viable, then I can see AA changing what it does out of PHX to Hawaii, and that could negatively affect the base.
Hawaiian is using the 321 very well, but they only launch it to the mainland out of Honolulu....the runway is not an issue. They don’t use it out of the smaller islands. And they use the 330 to PHX, even out of Honolulu. If anyone knows capabilities of a plane out of a Hawaiian city, it’s Hawaiian. They don’t even use the 321 out of Honolulu to PHX
And last point, and sorry for the ramble, as I’ve been told Hawaii is not lucrative. It’s full of non revs and passengers cashing in their miles under there frequent flyer plans. Lastly, it is a market battle since almost every airline does Hawaii flying. If Southwest ever gets it figured out, it will be a race to the bottom on ticket price