It’s funny, I think these are very realistic numbers, sobering maybe if you are new. These are the best numbers out right now to judge career progression on, so if I were new, or just a pilot on the list, I would find them germane.

Hired right now 2950
In five years you would move up +_ 300 numbers to roughly 2650
Best case you are 2650 out of 3650(73%)
Worst case 2650 out of 3300(80%)

60% is a good swag usually for your first possible upgrade. That makes:

2190 to 1980 the upgrade line:
August ‘16 to May ‘17 hire date to hold CA by the end of 2024 to early 2025.

I would call these realistic, cut green grass in your front yard kind of numbers. I figured people would want to know them.