Originally Posted by
pitchattitude
Nearly everyone should expect to move an average of 30 spots per month. That is roughly the current flow. But, yes, first year you do jump quite a bit more. I don’t know exact numbers, but there is pretty significant attrition the first year. People don’t make it through training or show up and have a medical issue. People decide it just isn’t for them and the handful of guys that just needed some currency and/or a 121 training event to get picked up by a major. (Yes, usually the military guys)
Second year you don’t see as much attrition. Barring another juggle of the flow (in our favor we hope) you won’t see that kind of movement. And after the PPs leave the flow will trickle for a while. There will be very little movement next year due to flow. (Or lack there of) And yes, if you scroll through the Union flow list, it is clearly displayed when this happens.
I agree there is always some attrition between the first year and flow, but it really just isn’t a lot.
I'm using average 25 per month attrition above me after PP's which I consider slightly on the pessimistic side over the next 6-7 years. Note, that when the PP->DoS people flow (which is a trickle), I'm still very junior, so I benefit from that. That gives me (and pretty much every other 2018 hire) a 6.5 year flow.
That's only a few people quitting outside the flow per month.