The best way to really understand the health of the company is to listen (or read) the earnings call transcripts. Not the presentation by the executives, but rather the Q&A with the Wall Street analysts at the end. There is really good stuff in there, and easy enough to digest to help you decide if you like AA’s strategic direction. The analysts don’t hold back and ask poignant questions about cost, revenue, stock buy backs, etcetera. Last month their was even an awkward jab at the lack of Scott Kirby. The last few quarters, AA’s stock has been up (marginally) immediately following the call, hinting that the investors are ‘okay’ with AA’s answers.

I spent 5 years at AA, and will reiterate that the fundamentals are strong...very solid network, efficient fleet makeup, robust hub strategy. What’s arguably weak is the overall product and brand perception (driven by many factors) resulting in passengers not willing to pay Delta yields. This will change, as essentially Wall Street demands Delta like yields. We get very worked up about the debt load of AA, and I try not to comment on debt as nearly all of it is aircraft, which has a cash value. This is the main reason that Wall Street barely mentions the debt load on these calls.

Keep in mind, Delta was very weak until 2008, and United was until mid 2018. I would rather be on the front side of this improvement wave than anywhere else. Plus with 47 group 4 aircraft on form order (replacing 22-32 group 3/4). Times are good to be an AA pilot.