Originally Posted by
highfarfast
Yeah, ALPA website projection is more like 9 years.
There are a lot of pie in the sky guys (dera) that think “oh, it will be much less than 9 years because everyone will be hiring like crazy”. However, almost all of ENVOY’s non-flow attrition are guys that are VERY junior so that attrition only effects you while you are junior to THEM.
Without major changes, you will not flow in less than 8 years. I’m not even getting into the loose language regarding non-protected flow.
But HEY, come here! I really want someone junior to me to sit reserve so I don’t have to.
Yeah this is the thing people just fail to understand. The movement from attrition is disproportionally junior, mainly due to military folks coming in needing to show Papa Major they can get through a 121 type ride. After that, they are gone in a few months. I know of three in my new hire class that did just this, gone in well less than a year. There where two other military guys that I didn't keep in touch with that are mostly likely gone as well.
This is great for a new hire for about a year, when suddenly you are senior to these people again. While we do lose some senior people, the fact of the matter is that the more senior you get, the less likely you will be affected by attrition because the more of your peers are holding out for the flow.