Originally Posted by
FullThrust
Folks. It isn’t that hard.
ALPA projects worst case scenario for flow. Company projects best case scenario for flow. Take the average. That’s probably what you are looking at.
The ALPA projection is just as inaccurate as the company’s projection.
This mindset can be extrapolated to everyone the company and ALPA tells you. ALPAs purpose is to make you think company is out to get you and that you really need ALPA to protect you by paying our ridiculous annual dues.
What ever the company tells you and what ALPA tells you are the polar extremes. The truth always is somewhere in the middle.
I agree with you that it's somewhere in the middle. I think most people think it's somewhere in the middle. But there's a lot of space in that middle.
The way I see it, while ALPA's projection of a 9 year flow is a little on the pessimistic side, it's possible. I can't even fathom how the company comes up their projection of 6 years... seems almost impossible. And given that almost all non-flow attrition is extremely junior, I think new hires TODAY are looking at an 8 year flow at best.
And all that assumes that AA continues to hire like bananas for the next decade. Flow is connected to hiring numbers so if AA stops hiring, so does flow.