Those are very generous numbers.

We have almost 2,000 pilots and we only flow 10 per month. The top 100 pilots are either lifers or people in class at American that are still on the PSA seniority list. So basically, you have to move up 1900 pilots until your flow spot comes up. Just by flow and not counting outside attrition that’s 15.83 years to flow. Obviously, there’s going to be other attrition also so our excel/math guru puts out a chart every now and then on our internal forums based on actual historical data. He works it out with different scenarios. As of the latest data from 2 weeks ago he comes up with a best case scenario of 8.6 years to flow for a new hire in the latest class. 10.3 years worst case.

The longer you wait to start class the longer your flow time increases as our flow rate doesn’t keep up with our growth rate.