I think there has already been so much hype about a pilot shortage that there won’t actually be one. The closest we got was in the 2015-2018 timeframe when regional pay jumped significantly.
I would really like to see some supply data from the FAA that segments for the right to work in the US. There is so much training of foreigners that it seems too difficult to parse that out from the FAA data and get a good grasp of. I’ve seen at least 1 study use CFIs as a proxy, but that’s not nearly as good as actual data. There are plenty of people who never become a CFI.
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