First, this isn't the majors forum and we aren't specifying a shortage at every level. A major airline can compensate for a shortage of pilots by upgauging so it is very obvious to say that of course there won't be a shortage. There will, however, be about a decade of incredible hiring at that level.

We have already seen two airlines, one particularly successful, effectively close their doors and primarily a response to a shortage of labor. Other airlines have been struggling to fill classes to staff anticipated growth for the last 5 years, even after increasing pay substantially. In economic terms, that is a shortage of supply.

Yes, there is a shortage. No, there is not a shortage of pilots available at the highest paying and most reputable jobs. But we aren't talking just about jobs at Envoy or Endeavor or Skywest or Delta or United. You don't find cracks in houses with the best foundation. Go to airlines built on cardboard to find them on the verge of collapse.