Originally Posted by
Wildflyin
That article had a bit of a slant to it....
What would you point to that makes it slanted?
A world wide recession would probably minimize some of the shortfall...less demand but the aging of the pilot fleet will continue regardless of recessions or not.
Would a lessening of demand of pilots for new planes, retiring pilots at 121 operations match the reduction in pilots positions that would result in a recession?
Hard to say but some lessening of the demand for pilots would occur.
If there are other variables they left out I'd be interested to hear your view.
I think they simply took some numbers/projections from companies that are in the know for what is being bought/sold/retired from their airline/Part 135 customers.
As far as indicators the shortage is occurring:
Some Part 135 ops are offering "part-time" positions for pilots, one rotation a month versus the standard 2...that wouldn't be happening unless normal schedules weren't enough of a lure to get pilots to be "semi-retired"
The first signs of a shortage are the recent (18-24 months) of increase in regional pay + bonuses. If there wasn't a shortage regional FOs would still be making sub $20K salary and they aren't.
SWA, Delta, JB are setting up aviation tracks for zero to hero flight training...never been done before in the US.
Regionals asking for and getting relief on the 1500 ATP hr rules.
Past 9 yrs seat capacity has been reduced on RJs by 4.5%.
Mainline has increased 14.5%
It won't happen overnight but regionals will feel it first as evidenced above and that means the Part 135/91 folks will be feeling it also.
The only relief valve for these two groups are the increased pool of retired 121 drivers...that is if you can entice them with enough money to lure them from the golf course, fishing pond, i.e. part-time jobs.
Just my $.02