Originally Posted by
Sniper66
For the year?
Because management said 25/30% higher than last year on some reports I read before during their announcement of 1.3 b for 3q
Last year was 6.67%
Yes, the PS guesstimate is 7.6% to 8.3% of your full year wages. Last year was 5.6% Management is "managing" expectations. The steps I outlined are exactly how PS is calculated. The unknowns are "other" and the final Q4 profit and revenue, but my 7.6% estimate is assuming a low number for "other" and profit in line with what the company told Wall St. to expect in the last earnings call. The gentleman who came up with the 8.3% number used a higher estimate for "other" and a higher estimate for Q4 profit, and he had a more accurate number for payroll.
My original guesstimate earlier in the year based on forecast expectations for 2019 was 5-7%, but I said every $100 million in savings adds about 0.3%. UAL exceeded the high end of their profit estimates, saved $200 million on fuel compared to last year, and kept cost increase well below revenue growth which net net is adding to PS for the year.
There really is little need to "guess" once you have the actual steps involved and 3 quarters worth of earnings and revenue.
Originally Posted by
Sunvox
: . . .
Revenue $43 billion
Earnings $3.8 billion
payroll $7.8 billion
So first 6.9% of $43 million = $2.967 billion and that is the amount of profit of which we get 10% then $3.8 - $2.967 = $833 million and that is the amount of profit of which we get 20%.
So $2.967 x .1 = $297 million / $7774 oayroll = 3.8%
and $833 x .2 = $166 million / $7774 payroll = 2.1%
Finally 3.8 +2.1 = 5.9%
If payroll goes up 5% the percentage falls to 5.6%.
If we save a $1 billion dollars in fuel the percentage goes up to 8.5% or said another way - every $100 million in fuel savings adds about 0.3% to PS.
. . .
What I should have said is every $100 million increase in profit adds about 0.3% whether that increase comes from cost savings OR revenue growth, but my focus in that post was to high light why our PS was so high in 2015 and that was because the average cost of oil that year was unexpectedly low at about $45 per barrel which goosed the PS check and that is not likely to happen again.
Originally Posted by
Sunvox
. .
You can't hide much. So no you actually can predict PS with a great deal of accuracy, and we can make a bet and see in February next year if I am close. I predict that we get between 5 to 7% this year.
We'll see
Understanding and predicting profit sharing.