Originally Posted by Vernon Demerest

Mine shows 2019 as of 4:20 PM CST. Letter from Oscar etc. 7.6724%. Basically a months pay for me (a month where I would credit 92 hours or so) based on 2019 earnings. Wish it were higher but it is better than last year and nothing we can do about it at this point. FA’s get 6.7% or so (noticed a FB post and a lot of complaining etc).

Originally Posted by Vernon Demerest

Mine shows 2019 as of 4:20 PM CST. Letter from Oscar etc. 7.6724%. Basically a months pay for me (a month where I would credit 92 hours or so) based on 2019 earnings. Wish it were higher but it is better than last year and nothing we can do about it at this point. FA’s get 6.7% or so (noticed a FB post and a lot of complaining etc).

Originally Posted by Andy

A LIGHT month's pay equivalent. Multiply the number (7,6724) by 12 and you've got 92%.

Good thing we're about to get that new contract.
Well, there's another line item in the contract that needs to be improved.

Originally Posted by XHooker

I think the company’s idea of “pensions back” is probably nothing like our idea of “pensions back.”

Originally Posted by guppie

our pre-tax profit $3.9B
Delta’s $6.2B
its not the formula... it’s the profit! (Or lack there of)

Originally Posted by PilotGR

exactly...we are not as efficient as delta..

Originally Posted by Sunvox

2019 revenue $43.00 billion
2019 profit $3.80 billion
2018 payroll $7.774 billion
2018 PS $0.35 billion
Other Est. $0.25 billion

So now we can do the math:

Step 1: total profit plus other plus last years PS : $3.80 +.35 +.25 =$4.40 billion


Total profit is already $3.07. Assume like Q4 it’s another $.814M. Total profit est 3.884. Profit sharing is already $.368 plus assume $.082 from Q418. Total profit sharing est $.45. FY18 “Other was .927 - .334 or .593. For this reason I’d adjust your number above to read 3.884 + .45+ .593. = $4.927 billion



step 2 what is 6.9% of 43 billion : $43.00 billion x 0.069 = $2.97 billion


Already $32.371B through Q3. Add last years Q4 rev of $10.491 and 2019 FY est is $42.862B. $43 is close enough.



step 3 10% of that number is what : $2.97 x 10% = $297 million


step 4 what percentage of payroll is that : $297 million / $7774 million = 3.9%


This years operating salary is 5.4% higher. 7774 million x 1.054= 8194 million. 3.624%

step 5 then how much at the 20% level : $4.4 billion - $2.97 billion = $1430


$4.9 billion - $2.97 billion = $1.93 B

step 6 what is 20% of that number : $1430 x 20% = $286 million

$1.93 x 20% = $386 million


step 7 what percentage of payroll is that : $286 / $7774 = 3.7%

$386 / 8194 = 4.71%

Last but not least : 3.9% + 3.7% = 7.6%

3.624% + 4.71% = 8.334%

Originally Posted by Sunvox

Yes, the PS guesstimate is 7.6% to 8.3% of your full year wages. Last year was 5.6% Management is "managing" expectations. The steps I outlined are exactly how PS is calculated. The unknowns are "other" and the final Q4 profit and revenue, but my 7.6% estimate is assuming a low number for "other" and profit in line with what the company told Wall St. to expect in the last earnings call. The gentleman who came up with the 8.3% number used a higher estimate for "other" and a higher estimate for Q4 profit, and he had a more accurate number for payroll.


My original guesstimate earlier in the year based on forecast expectations for 2019 was 5-7%, but I said every $100 million in savings adds about 0.3%. UAL exceeded the high end of their profit estimates, saved $200 million on fuel compared to last year, and kept cost increase well below revenue growth which net net is adding to PS for the year.

There really is little need to "guess" once you have the actual steps involved and 3 quarters worth of earnings and revenue.






What I should have said is every $100 million increase in profit adds about 0.3% whether that increase comes from cost savings OR revenue growth, but my focus in that post was to high light why our PS was so high in 2015 and that was because the average cost of oil that year was unexpectedly low at about $45 per barrel which goosed the PS check and that is not likely to happen again.





Understanding and predicting profit sharing.

Originally Posted by Andy

A LIGHT month's pay equivalent. Multiply the number (7,6724) by 12 and you've got 92%.

Good thing we're about to get that new contract.
Well, there's another line item in the contract that needs to be improved.