Originally Posted by
HiFlyer992
-AA is already getting 40%+ military.
-The Air Force isn't the only service that makes pilots. Between the Navy, Marine Corps, and Army you have a much larger pool. A 1000 military pilot per year pool is inaccurate.
-You may want to check the "considerable bonus" numbers. $25k-35k/year is not considerable. Those Air Force pilots were going to stay in anyways.
Just my opinion, but I believe you will see between 40 and 50% military hires at AA continue for the foreseeable future. There doesn't appear to be any reason that number will change. One reason I could see is if the USAF or other services actually do offer considerable bonuses in the neighborhood of 75k to 100k per year. That would probably get people the stay in vice going to the Airlines.
I think you are delusional.
A July 30 2019 report to Congress
https://prhome.defense.gov/Portals/5...%20release.pdf
All three services have a shortfall of not only fixed wing but rotary wing pilots that has worsened every year since sequestration took place. The USAF alone is currently 2000 pilots short of authorized production and while the long term goal is to increase production, that is limited by several chokepoints including lack of IPs. But even once production can be increased, there will be a ten year lag period (due to the active duty service commitment incurred during training) before the majority of these individuals would be available for airline hiring.
An excerpt:
The DoD is experiencing a significant pilot shortfall. While the shortfall reaches across each of the military departments, the Air Force is experiencing the largest shortfall. Military aviation capabilities have been in high demand over the last 17 years of combat operations. The challenges of operating at this sustained level of engagement, coupled with reduced budgets, has resulted in inadequate funding for pilot production and aircraft material readiness accounts. These shortfalls have been further exacerbated by high attrition among experienced pilots who have transitioned to opportunities within the commercial aviation industry. Commercial aviation hiring is at an all-time high, as major airlines are experiencing an unprecedented number of mandatory retirements, additional Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) requirements, and industry growth. The last time the airline industry experienced elevated levels of hiring (above 3,000 pilots/yr), it was limited to the five years between 1997 and 2001. By contrast, the major airlines have hired an average of 4,000 new pilots over the last five years and current industry forecasts estimate that they will require at least 4,000-5,000 pilots per year, for the next ten years.
It’s demographics. I’m not sure you followed Rickair’s comment about draining the accumulator but it is entirely apt - especially for the state of the US military fixed wing community. The bodies that have historically been there are not there. The vast majority of those pilots available today started their military training over a decade ago and have been in the pipeline ever since, some fir over 20 years. In the meantime, training of new pilots in the military has decreased constantly since the end of the Cold War. Even rotary wing warrants are in short supply, while the airlines are having and anticipating unprecedented hiring.