Originally Posted by
Excargodog
I think you are delusional.
A July 30 2019 report to Congress
https://prhome.defense.gov/Portals/5...%20release.pdf
All three services have a shortfall of not only fixed wing but rotary wing pilots that has worsened every year since sequestration took place. The USAF alone is currently 2000 pilots short of authorized production and while the long term goal is to increase production, that is limited by several chokepoints including lack of IPs. But even once production can be increased, there will be a ten year lag period (due to the active duty service commitment incurred during training) before the majority of these individuals would be available for airline hiring.
An excerpt:
It’s demographics. I’m not sure you followed Rickair’s comment about draining the accumulator but it is entirely apt - especially for the state of the US military fixed wing community. The bodies that have historically been there are not there. The vast majority of those pilots available today started their military training over a decade ago and have been in the pipeline ever since, some fir over 20 years. In the meantime, training of new pilots in the military has decreased constantly since the end of the Cold War. Even rotary wing warrants are in short supply, while the airlines are having and anticipating unprecedented hiring.
Not sure if you think my numbers or my opinion is delusional. My opinion is my opinion. The numbers are correct.
-The 40% at AA is fact (atleast this year). I'm not exactly sure of past numbers, but I would bet past years numbers are similar.
-Greater than 1000 military pilots available per year is also fact. Probably more like 2000 per year, but I can't say for certain. Between the years of 2001 to 2012, 2400 pilots left the military each year. 2400>1000.
-The shortfall of military aviators on active duty has nothing to do with the airlines ability to hire the ones that are separating and retiring.
Your statement: "The USAF alone is currently 2000 pilots short of authorized production and while the long term goal is to increase production, that is limited by several chokepoints including lack of IPs."...This has nothing to do with the price of tea in China.