Originally Posted by
HiFlyer992
Not sure if you think my numbers or my opinion is delusional. My opinion is my opinion. The numbers are correct.
-The 40% at AA is fact (atleast this year). I'm not exactly sure of past numbers, but I would bet past years numbers are similar.
-Greater than 1000 military pilots available per year is also fact. Probably more like 2000 per year, but I can't say for certain. Between the years of 2001 to 2012, 2400 pilots left the military each year. 2400>1000.
-The shortfall of military aviators on active duty has nothing to do with the airlines ability to hire the ones that are separating and retiring.
Your statement: "The USAF alone is currently 2000 pilots short of authorized production and while the long term goal is to increase production, that is limited by several chokepoints including lack of IPs."...This has nothing to do with the price of tea in China.
Your opinion is delusional. Nowhere near all the military pilots leaving the service come to any airline, many and generally most find careers elsewhere. And most if not all rotary wing guys go first to a regional - not to a major.
But you miss the significance if Rickair’s draining the accumulator analogy.
The average military person being hired today went to UPT over 10 years ago, many over 20 years ago. The military has been training at less than previous rates throughout that entire period of time. The accumulator is running out just as the deep and is ramping up.