Carrot 2.0
They should call it Carrot 2.0
No data at all exists for hire rate. I've seen all sorts selected that maybe shouldn't have been, and many that I would honestly hire before my own self get turned down more than once.
The best analogy is:
"We need 20 people. Put everyone who's not a hard 'No' in a hat, pull 20 names, and send them a CJO. Send everyone else a TBNT letter."
If you JUST KNOW you won't get stuck here/definitely get hired at UAL/etc....good luck.
One minute they hire the 7 month FO, the next minute they're turning down a military guy who's a line check airman/instructor. I've known more than one.
Best advice: you get an interview. Probably. But it's a lottery ticket. And don't get shot down at the final review board. That's happened to for unknown reasons.
A FoF is a UAL CA who gives thumbs up and thumbs down at interviews/boards. They've even gone against what recommendation HE made.