Originally Posted by
Duffman
So, as a rule of thumb it appears roughly all of the regional CAs now will be hired by 2023 and roughly all of the regional pilots will be hired by 2027
That's some good info on what retirements and hiring requirements are in the upcoming years, but I really have to strongly disagree with this. This is based on the assumption that the vast majority of pilots are going to come from regionals, and that every airline has a flow-like agreement where employment at a major is a guarantee.
AA recently put out a hiring update, where they outlined who they are hiring and where they come from. Its pretty much 40% military and 60% civilian. The vast majority of civilian pilots are flows. They very strongly worded that this is the way they like it and the way it will remain. "The path to American has never been clearer".
I think where your prediction goes wrong is with the military side of hiring. Yes they will be hurting for pilots, but pilots will still be separating regularly.