Originally Posted by e6bpilot

Most junior upgrade hire date right now is March 2010. Classes canceled for December, so he was right at 9.5 years as an early November upgrade.
I suspect it will drop significantly once the max is back on line (whenever that happens) and then again when we hit the “recession bubble” where there was only sporadic pilot hiring for a few years.
My crystal ball thinks it will drop to 6-7 years, but guys around Zap and my seniority will probably not see that and will be more around 8 years for first available.
I was discussing bypass FOs with a captain the other day. He pointed out (correctly) that that group has pretty much always existed, even when things were really slow. Bypassers gonna bypass. It’s usually for a good reason. I know if I had the choice between my current domicile as a senior FO or commuting to OAK or LA to hold a junior captain seat, that I would bypass to infinity.