Originally Posted by Baradium

There was a good e-mail put out by ALPA a while ago but the short story is there is absolutely no guarantee.

Contractually, if they bypass a pilot they have to bypass any other pilots who asked for bypass and are due to retire earlier than them. Per the e-mail, the company ALSO has its own policy that if it bypasses you they will also bypass any pilots senior to you who also asked for a bypass. So a single bypass can get really complicated depending on who asked for a bypass, so while at 6 months left you may think you are a shoe in for a bypass, if there are 3 pilots senior to you with 5 years left who checked the bypass box then you won't get bypassed. Bypasses can theoretically go out to 5 years but the company has never been inclined to go that far.

So it's a combination of cost to train you vs bypass others, which other pilots actually asked for a bypass, simulator availability and your time available. The A350 right now is so simulator constrained they are more likely to bypass than say a 330 or 777 bid. I think they went out to 2 years on this last AE for the 350 but who knows about the next one. Over a year on anything else and it's a real gamble (and it is still a gamble with different odds for the 350).

Basically, no matter when you bid for it, you could still be forced to train, so there is never a guarantee you'll get the extra pay without having to put in the work. If you absolutely don't want to train, don't bid. If you are willing to accept a chance of training then it's a game to play with odds increasing of a bypass every month you are under 2 years left with chances of a bypass near zero at more than 2 years. And all it takes is for a relatively senior pilot with a lot of years left checking the bypass box to make most everyone else train.