Originally Posted by
Pedro4President
He makes 11 points about Envoy and you pick flow to try to discredit him. When we talk about flow there are no facts. None zip zilch. It’s all best guess. Doesn’t mean he is right or wrong but in all honesty it’s just opinions we are talking about. Everything else he said was pretty factual. There were a few things that may be debatable but definitely everything thing he said apart from flow is either fact or the most likely scenario to play out for a new hire.
If we’re talking about flow though I don’t think the OP can get away with saying the flow is likely going to be 7 years and post how many pilots will get hired in 2020. Flow will drop to sub 6 years by July/August and stay there. IMO! I don’t see it coming back up above 6 years with that amount of hiring. But Envoy pilots can be lazy and not get their apps out.
I'm glad that you can see the numbers the rest of us are looking at and I concur with you 100% that the flow is going to be sub 6 years for long into the foreseeable future. I'm standing by my prediction of a 3 to 4 year flow in the end when everything shakes out. American has huge retirement numbers and they are going to need pilots! Envoy is very well positioned with the extremely large number of apps on file and with the massive interest in the pipeline program. Don't forget that AAG essentially invented this program and it has been going gangbusters. Of course, when the end result is an AA pilot, the product is the draw.