Adding other figures
I think if you really want to know the numbers, you can also add in the “departures” that you find on the monthly emails from ALPA. It’s not exact but i can give some better numbers for estimation.
A quick look shows (on average) 6 flows per month, 3-5 hired at other airlines, 1 retiree, and 2-5 “resigned”. So at first glance, 11-16 people leave a month!
BUT- most resignees leave in the first few months, so if you’re calculating for the flow, these pilots won’t help you after your third month in the company. Based off current hiring markets, I imagine that 3-5 guys ahead of you will get hired (outside of flows) every month. So maybe plan for 9-10 people ahead of you leaving every month until you get senior (at which point people start waiting for the flow and you’re back to 6/mo). It’s a super complicated estimation and anyone who tells you they can predict 5-6-7-8 years in the future is a liar. As I ramble, I remember that this has been discussed ad naseum in older forums, but it needs to stay towards the forefront of every discussion.
Long story short, there IS a flow. Maybe you’ll see it, maybe you’ll get hired before, maybe you’ll get abducted by aliens and none of this will matter.
Questions I would want answered as a new hire- How long is upgrade time? How much time is PDT flying per month? What’s our average days off per month (after interface)? What Is interface? What’s the average amount of “Junior mans” used per year?
The one thing this does not take into account is attrition and retirements. But if a recruiter is telling you that you will have a 5-6 year flow, well that is BS. Essentially their math is based off of you being part of the statistic of leaving Piedmont before you would flow. You would need roughly 200 some people senior to you to leave within 5 years. PDT only has 694 Pilots. You really think 1/3 of them are going to retire and or leave in 5 years? If so, then you'll have your 5-year flow. That's quite the bet though.
Do the math, it's not hard. But a new hire today is looking at probably 7.5 years for flow. Sure a lot of factors can change this, but the flow will in no way be 5 years from date of hire today.[/QUOTE]