Originally Posted by
CanadianFlyer
When AA announced the flow program 5 years ago, they calculated Piedmont's flow at 4 to 6 years. Many people (including some of the recruiters/managers at the time) HOWLED and said the math didn't work, and that would never happen. Now in 2020 the flow is 4.8 years and all 2014 pilots are at AA - exactly what AA said would happen.
While I appreciate everyone's math - and you're not wrong based on the limited information you have- recognize that AA analysts who spend A LOT of time on this are looking at the industry as a whole, flow rates and attrition patterns of other carriers, hiring and retirements, etc. Piedmont's flow estimate for new hires in 2020 (Jan - June) is 5 to 6 years. It may creep up the second half of the year, but there will be better numbers in a few months. AA has been getting it right for years, there's just no reason to think they are wrong this time.
No reason except for elementary math and a general idea of how attrition works at this place.
I typed a long response to this but ended up deleting it. Just going to come back to the fact that you think there are a group of "analysts" at AA who are sitting there crunching honest numbers on flow times for the prospective CFI's out there considering PDT. All that time flying sideways must have altered your thinking
Thanks for the chuckle with my morning coffee