First bid will likely go more junior than the next. An 11 year 320 captain who holds a line but not weekends off won’t want to risk losing what they have. If 75% of the other left seat bids are senior to them, they’ll find themselves back on reserve for a year or more. People with nothing to lose will bid it, then senior people will have an idea where they would slot in QOL wise. I’m a junior 320 captain and have no intention of bidding it. Unknown schedules, pay cut, and no idea where I’d falls seniority wise.
The people who will eventually want it is the ~1400 seniority number 48 year olds. They’ve been bus captains for 8-10 years and hold mediocre lines that are only improved with flica. They don’t hold holidays off in a bid and not every weekend either. Summer vacation is likely a no as well. Because of our age etc, this group will have the exact same bid power for the next 10+ years. I think this is the group that ultimately makes the jump to be a 35% bidder vs a 55%.