Originally Posted by
StormChaser
I think the only likely scenario for possible furloughs at NWA following a merger is if a decision is made to immediately park the -9's. Not too likely to happen right away, in my opinion, as any merger would take a significant amount of time to work through.
As for flowback to Compass, it was mentioned on a different thread that up to 90% of pilots on the Compass seniority list can be bumped by NWA pilots flowing back. A friend of mine who works at Compass pretty much agrees with that thought, but he believes it could even be a total replacement, not just 90%.
You are correct when stating that 90% of the CPS list can hit the street from a NWA furlough. The CPS CBA actually states that 10% of the CPS list won't hit the streets as long as those CPS pilots bypassed flow. So, in reality, if a NW/DAL merger happens soon and requires a flow back, pretty much the entire CPS list is gone per the CBA. That is because there is no way that all 360 CPS pilots would have had a chance to bypass flow (for one thing we only have 170 pilots and two; you need to be on property for 36+ months before flowing, etc....).
It is my opinion however, that CPS pilots won't be affected from a merger between NW/DAL. In general, I think there are/will be too many retirements at NW and they will aggresively use the EMB175s to grow the domestic market. As another poster mentioned, the future is international flying which does take more crews and the age 65 law requires that one of those airmen be under 60. I'm pretty sure DAL has seen most of its retirements already but they too are hiring aggresively. Together, I think a merged NW/DAL will require no furloughs or slow and steady hiring.
If a deal goes down, I know it won't be all roses (since airline mergers never are), but perhaps if this is done right, NW/DAL can lead the industry by having first movers advantage.