Originally Posted by But seriously

All of the math is an estimate at best, and more likely a WAG. There are two huge unknown factors:

1. Outside Attrition - it’s hardly useful to use the past as a predictive tool considering what everyone anticipates the Legacy hiring to be over the next few years

2. The Flow Agreements - There is not a single pilot who has flowed to AA under an agreement that was in place when they were hired (at least in the last 20 years). The flow agreement staying constant for 5 years is extremely unlikely.