Originally Posted by
Stryker172
National emergency was declared, schools and universities are closed, museums are closed, travel restrictions are in place, businesses are closing, legislation is being worked on, and we are doing nothing about containing this?
Not enough. If you look at Wuhan, death rate 4% because it took them a while to shut everything down and by then the hospitals where overwhelmed. Surrounding areas were shut down completely, people kept in their houses, and mortality around 1%.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca
from the article:
If you have deaths in your region, you can use that to guess the number of true current cases. We know approximately how long it takes for that person to go from catching the virus to dying on average (
17.3 days). That means the person who died on 2/29 in Washington State probably got infected around 2/12.
Then, you know the mortality rate. For this scenario, I’m using 1% (we’ll discuss later the details). That means that, around 2/12, there were already around ~100 cases in the area (of which only one ended up in death 17.3 days later).
Now, use the average doubling time for the coronavirus (time it takes to double cases, on average). It’s
6.2. That means that, in the 17 days it took this person to die, the cases had to multiply by ~8 (=2^(17/6)). That means that, if you are not diagnosing all cases, one death today means 800 true cases today.
Washington state has today 22 deaths. With that quick calculation, you get ~16,000 true coronavirus cases today(in the state of Washington alone!!. Article is from March 10th, and cases double every 6 days)