Twilight zone
03-15-2020 | 08:31 PM
#62
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Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 4,179
Likes: 257
From: Aircraft & Seat: old & hard
Wait, you wouldn't say we aren't doing nothing? I think that is what I said but I am not sure...
03-15-2020 | 08:42 PM
#63
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Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 4,179
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From: Aircraft & Seat: old & hard
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca
from the article:
If you have deaths in your region, you can use that to guess the number of true current cases. We know approximately how long it takes for that person to go from catching the virus to dying on average (17.3 days). That means the person who died on 2/29 in Washington State probably got infected around 2/12.
Then, you know the mortality rate. For this scenario, I’m using 1% (we’ll discuss later the details). That means that, around 2/12, there were already around ~100 cases in the area (of which only one ended up in death 17.3 days later).
Now, use the average doubling time for the coronavirus (time it takes to double cases, on average). It’s 6.2. That means that, in the 17 days it took this person to die, the cases had to multiply by ~8 (=2^(17/6)). That means that, if you are not diagnosing all cases, one death today means 800 true cases today.
Washington state has today 22 deaths. With that quick calculation, you get ~16,000 true coronavirus cases today(in the state of Washington alone!!. Article is from March 10th, and cases double every 6 days)
03-15-2020 | 10:25 PM
#65
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Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 1,909
Likes: 7
From: B767
Stopped watching when he said: "In China they're headed back to work, BUT ITS GOING TO COME BACK".
They're is nothing you can do to stop this has been the contention of many, it will run its course. What I didn't think about was the overrun of our hospitals and the only thing we can do is slow it down. However, at what cost? Personally, and my opinion is worth about as much as my 401k now, we should be doing as China did. Build temporary hospitals, keep the most at risk as protected as possible and the rest of us work. It's a child like fantasy if you think 3 to 4 weeks of no school, sports or skiing is really going to fix this situation. It's also childish to think the government can afford to take care of us all for 12-18 months until a vaccine is produced. If we continue down the route we're headed, we will be broke and sick, instead of just being sick.
Enjoy your day as they may be few.
They're is nothing you can do to stop this has been the contention of many, it will run its course. What I didn't think about was the overrun of our hospitals and the only thing we can do is slow it down. However, at what cost? Personally, and my opinion is worth about as much as my 401k now, we should be doing as China did. Build temporary hospitals, keep the most at risk as protected as possible and the rest of us work. It's a child like fantasy if you think 3 to 4 weeks of no school, sports or skiing is really going to fix this situation. It's also childish to think the government can afford to take care of us all for 12-18 months until a vaccine is produced. If we continue down the route we're headed, we will be broke and sick, instead of just being sick.
Enjoy your day as they may be few.
03-16-2020 | 06:44 AM
#66
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 464
Likes: 0
From: C-172
Not enough. If you look at Wuhan, death rate 4% because it took them a while to shut everything down and by then the hospitals where overwhelmed. Surrounding areas were shut down completely, people kept in their houses, and mortality around 1%.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca
from the article:
If you have deaths in your region, you can use that to guess the number of true current cases. We know approximately how long it takes for that person to go from catching the virus to dying on average (17.3 days). That means the person who died on 2/29 in Washington State probably got infected around 2/12.
Then, you know the mortality rate. For this scenario, I’m using 1% (we’ll discuss later the details). That means that, around 2/12, there were already around ~100 cases in the area (of which only one ended up in death 17.3 days later).
Now, use the average doubling time for the coronavirus (time it takes to double cases, on average). It’s 6.2. That means that, in the 17 days it took this person to die, the cases had to multiply by ~8 (=2^(17/6)). That means that, if you are not diagnosing all cases, one death today means 800 true cases today.
Washington state has today 22 deaths. With that quick calculation, you get ~16,000 true coronavirus cases today(in the state of Washington alone!!. Article is from March 10th, and cases double every 6 days)
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca
from the article:
If you have deaths in your region, you can use that to guess the number of true current cases. We know approximately how long it takes for that person to go from catching the virus to dying on average (17.3 days). That means the person who died on 2/29 in Washington State probably got infected around 2/12.
Then, you know the mortality rate. For this scenario, I’m using 1% (we’ll discuss later the details). That means that, around 2/12, there were already around ~100 cases in the area (of which only one ended up in death 17.3 days later).
Now, use the average doubling time for the coronavirus (time it takes to double cases, on average). It’s 6.2. That means that, in the 17 days it took this person to die, the cases had to multiply by ~8 (=2^(17/6)). That means that, if you are not diagnosing all cases, one death today means 800 true cases today.
Washington state has today 22 deaths. With that quick calculation, you get ~16,000 true coronavirus cases today(in the state of Washington alone!!. Article is from March 10th, and cases double every 6 days)
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