Originally Posted by Jungedrache

I agree.. .the only time we will see a consistent number up is when they announce a vaccine that shows promising and when they effectively see unemployment numbers go down, we are still weeks ahead from that. Markets are very “volatile” to the point where even financial analyst can’t predict how the market will react the next day.

when it comes to airlines... not trying to sound pessimistic but I hardly see them back to the hiring levels they had in at least ten years. My rationale is as follows:

- people are not flying now because they are afraid of the virus
- when people’s confidence are back they will still not going to fly for lack of money. Thousands are being lay off and the ones that are not are saving cash for the storm ahead.
- Airlines will get their loan money and they will have 5 years-ish to pay it off... during that time you can expect near “zero” expansion, just covering the minimum necessary routes and frequencies to meet demand. Pilots are going to be recalled from furlough as fast as old pilots retire...
- After airlines pay off the debt and are cleared “to expand at will” I can guarantee they will all save loads of cash (probably in the neighborhood of 16 billion each) so they will come out more conservative on expansion plans. They will most likely acquire new airplanes to replace the oldest fleet but not nearly enough to justify a hiring bonanza that we saw the past few years.

So sit back, relax, if you are not furloughed enjoy the ride for the next few years, welcome to the next “lost decade”