Originally Posted by
rld1k
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/fea...ow-no-symptoms
These fatality numbers are based on people being tested. The majority of people don't even show symptoms, the vast majority of those who do have mild symptoms. The people being tested are the small minority that actually get sick. Pretty obvious to see how these numbers are off by an order of magnitude.
Have you followed the WHO situation reports? Those are informative and just present the numbers. Some places in Europe are well above 2%.
Someone on the XJT forum posted a paper being reviewed right now. It shows that the fatality rate through models ranges from 0.5% to 4%. It’s got a lot of noise and not enough sampling (first month in Wuhan) but it acknowledges that non-symptom carriers will change the numbers (for the better?) but at the moment their models on fatality rates are not looking good for asymptomatic, affected, and hospitalized. What the numbers agreed on was 20 days +/- 4 days you die if you’ve got it for many of their baseline models, if you are one of the 0.5%-4% that do die. Scary.
Check out the WHO situation reports when you got a chance and apply that delay to the new observations from 3 weeks before. However that article you posted is interesting about false positives. Great example of statistics in action. However, it makes it even scarier when we can separate the real coronavirus carriers and their death rates. That means the 2% fatality rate is among both carriers and non-carriers. Yikes.