Originally Posted by
OTZeagle1
This industry can just blow at times. Sorry, I meant 3 million a month. Yes, they don’t see a snap back anytime soon. A slow recovery is what they are banking on. That is 385 approximate reductions.
this is an excerpt from a nobel peace prize winning economist Vernon Smith about our current state of affairs and the Airline Industry....
I HAVE BEEN ASKED IN PRIVATE COMMUNICATION BY SOMEONE IN THE HOTEL BUSINESS THE FOLLOWING:
"What kind of market would you consider the hotels part of? We are getting seriously hit in the travel industry...I'm guessing that is a retradeable... Hence longer recover?
I GAVE THE FOLLOWING ANSWER:
"No, not a retradeable (the market for hotel structures involves retrade).
People rent hotel rooms, just as they rent an airplane seat, overwhelmingly for use, not to hold as an asset, or to resell. On a much smaller scale, it's like buying a hamburger and eating it.
Therefore, I argue, that the downside impact is immediate, yes, but the upside is immediate also. consumer demand is resilient for these household non-durables., so that demand recovers. they do not enter household balance sheets as do owner-occupied homes, which reduce household wealth that drags into the future until house prices recover. This is hwy, painful as it is now for both hotels and consumers, its not a long term drag; once the pandemic passes, I expect people to be anxious and ready to spend on travel and hotels. We did not have that in the Depression or the Great Recession because the main source of household wealth--houses--was depressed for years. In the Depression home equity peaked out in 1929 and did not reach that real price level again until 1940!--11 years!
So, as I see it this will pass, and pass quickly, once the clamp down on movement is lifted; a more common post-crisis question may be whether public policy overreacted. We will never know the answer to that. Data from the UK may enlighten as they mostly called for cleanliness, stay home if you are over 60, or feel ill."
Point is, nobody can predict demand. Not even Eagle. Thanks Eagle for the thoughts and info, but I do believe it's not helpful in a time like now. I firmly believe right now as of this minute and based on what famous Award winning economists are saying that this thing will rapidly recover. As such the Airline industry will as well. Just my .02. I firmly believe we will NOT furlough at this time. Rose colored glasses? Maybe.
AnchorDown