The problem with estimating the cost of a furlough, is you have to know what the desired end state is.

For example, lets say you want to shrink the airline by 20% from the size it was in January 2020 and get there by the summer of 2021. First you would need to know how many retirements you have coming (fairly easy to get a good estimate of that, since most are mandatory) Then you would need to know which airplanes you are getting rid of by then, so you can know where the remaining 80% of pilots need to be. Then you have the joy of trying to model Pilot's behavior in predicting the results of bumps. Historically we barely even tried to do this, we just mostly bumped from the current excess, see where everybody goes, determine the new excess, bump that excess, see where everybody goes, determine the new excess.......
this is where the huge costs come into the process!!! So, this means that costs for a furlough go up exponentially as the size of the furlough you are attempting to get to is increased.

So, how much each furlough costs is entirely dependent on what the total number of furloughs is planned to be.

Where this is especially bad is in our current situation for those on the very low end of the seniority list. In our current situation with no furloughs before Oct 1, you can see that the bottom end of the list is in jeopardy. Taking pilots off the line to be trained between now and Oct 1 can be done for little change in costs since we will have pilots not being used for line flying and training capacity that is not being used. So, bumping excess 777/787/756 FOs off of their fleet and training even more pilots onto the 737/A320 FO seat could be done by Oct 1. This would then allow for a large number of excess pilots to furloughed on Oct 1. Most of those pilots would be do either 0 or 2 weeks of furlough pay, so this type of furlough could be done for the lowest cost per furloughed pilot. I am estimating based on current staffing numbers on the narrowbodies, that you could prob furlough 500ish pilots on Sept 30. That is a huge number and totally sucks!

Any subsequent furlough would be the result of additional bumps and training cycles and thus starts creating additional costs. The more of that training they can accomplish while we are in this massive pulldown the "cheaper" it is for the company. That has to be balanced against keeping your staffing at a level that can cover the optimistic end of your flying plans, so you can still cover flights if demand returns faster than you estimated. We should get an idea on what level the company is looking to shoot for very soon, as the size of any issued Displacements will help show their plan.

With the current limits discussed in the government money, it sounds as if even after Sept 30, we will be limited to no more than 10% furlough. Not exactly sure of the specific limitations/application of that requirement, but using 10% you come up with just over 1300 pilots. That would get us into pilots that would have completed over 2 years on the property, but not get us into the reconfigure the 76 seater to 70 seater range. If they are looking to get to that kind of number, then you are talking about significant bumps/BES closings coming soon. Sadly the dramatic pulldown of the schedule we currently have is providing financial motivation for the company to start the Bumping/Training process sooner!