Originally Posted by cadetdrivr

Ok, guys, take a deep breath.

For those us here in 2001 that remember how it went down last time, it took UAL a little over two years to furlough 2172 pilots. And that was furloughing at full speed.

In 2009 it took about a year to furlough 1400 pilots when the 737-300/500s were parked. And that was mostly fleet specific and not a drawdown of the entire airline.

The problem is the bottom 2K (or 3K) pilots are not all on the most junior equipment AND their replacements who are being bumped from above will take time to be trained. If UAL furloughed 3K pilots by Christmas, as has been suggested, the narrow-body fleets would not turn a wheel. This is the last thing UAL needs or wants going forward.

So, if furloughs happen there will be a long drawn out process of displacements (and training) that will seriously slow down the process of furloughs. UAL will need to train “new” 737 FOs before furloughing more junior 737 FOs, for example.

Sure, UAL could probably furlough a couple hundred to start off but after that it’s a methodical process.

This is the UPA working exactly as intended. It should not be easy to furlough pilots for short term cycles.

As the process is not instantaneous there will also be retirements coming off the top and well as a presumably improving economy as the process moves forward. All combined, the total number furloughed will be less than the number of “extra” pilots on Oct 1.