Originally Posted by
TransWorld
If you used the current reported 80,000 cases, that would mean a fatality rate of 37% to 50%.
I read, somewhere, they estimate the true number of cases to be 10x to 40x the number reported. If that is true, cases in China may be 800,000 to 3,200,000 cases. That might mean 4% to 1% facilities. This is closer to what is being seen in the rest of the world.
Yesterday's Lancet estimated the COVID-19 iFR to be 0.66%.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...243-7/fulltext
The original estimates of COVID-19 fatality rate were on the magnitude of 5.7x higher than the most up-to-date estimate.
The iFR for those without chronic disease and those that are not yet senior citizens is no higher than for a typical flu (it's in a big fat chart in the middle of the study)
The real word has not seen 1-4% fatality rate. Widespread testing has not been done and will not be done for the foreseeable future.
There is some really good data in the above link. It was excellent research.
Also, China did not consider someone infected unless they tested positive AND had symptoms. So they missed at the very least half of the infections (and probably a lot more than half).