Connect and get the inside scoop on Airline Companies

Welcome to Airline Pilot Forums - Connect and get the inside scoop on Airline Companies

If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ. Join our community today and start interacting with existing members. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free.


User Tag List

Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 03-25-2020, 11:00 AM   #1  
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
 
flightmedic01's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jul 2011
Position: About to be bumped down
Posts: 565
Default Is COVID-19 really that deadly.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-...ay-11585088464
flightmedic01 is offline  
Old 03-25-2020, 11:21 AM   #2  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Trowserchilli's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jun 2016
Posts: 509
Default

No. Nearly the same as the flu.

Italy reported today 99% of their deaths were due to people with pre-existing conditions.
48% of those people had three or more pre-existing conditions.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...MgHij1KiEM11-I
Trowserchilli is offline  
Old 03-25-2020, 11:33 AM   #3  
Gets Weekends Off
 
KonaJoe's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jun 2019
Position: Guppy.
Posts: 184
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trowserchilli View Post
No. Nearly the same as the flu.

Italy reported today 99% of their deaths were due to people with pre-existing conditions.
48% of those people had three or more pre-existing conditions.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...MgHij1KiEM11-I
Do you know how many people in the world have "pre existing conditions"? The USA alone is famous for overweight/diabetic/heart problems/etc.
KonaJoe is online now  
Old 03-25-2020, 12:20 PM   #4  
Gets Weekends Off
 
SKMarz's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Sep 2007
Position: FO A320
Posts: 289
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trowserchilli View Post
No. Nearly the same as the flu.

Italy reported today 99% of their deaths were due to people with pre-existing conditions.
48% of those people had three or more pre-existing conditions.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...MgHij1KiEM11-I
Someone already posted this podcast. This doctor is very well respected. This is NOT like the flu and our country, the world really, is unprepared.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw
SKMarz is offline  
Old 03-25-2020, 12:38 PM   #5  
Gets Weekends Off
 
RAHkid94's Avatar
 
Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 162
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trowserchilli View Post
No. Nearly the same as the flu.

Italy reported today 99% of their deaths were due to people with pre-existing conditions.
48% of those people had three or more pre-existing conditions.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...MgHij1KiEM11-I
how many people do you fly with are overweight or obese and have high blood pressure? Or smokers? How many diabetics in the general population? Something like 40% of the country is on high blood pressure meds.
RAHkid94 is offline  
Old 03-25-2020, 03:09 PM   #6  
Gets Weekends Off
 
sourdough44's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Sep 2013
Position: Left
Posts: 554
Default

I heard the linked article dissected today. I tend to believe there is merit in the premise. The authors are well respected.

Itís at least something that should be added to the mix as action is taken.
sourdough44 is offline  
Old 03-25-2020, 03:23 PM   #7  
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
 
flightmedic01's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jul 2011
Position: About to be bumped down
Posts: 565
Default

Hereís the rest of the text of the article in case it says to sign in or subscribe to the WSJ:


If itís true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But thereís little evidence to confirm that premiseóand projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.

Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rateó2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of casesóorders of magnitude largeróthen the true fatality rate is much lower as well. Thatís not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.

Next, the northeastern Italian town of VÚ, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of VÚ were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. Thatís more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italyís case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.

In Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the government to perform widespread testing. In a sample of nearly 2,000 entirely asymptomatic people, researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over 1%. Icelandís first case was reported on Feb. 28, weeks behind the U.S. Itís plausible that the proportion of the U.S. population that has been infected is double, triple or even 10 times as high as the estimates from Iceland. That also implies a dramatically lower fatality rate.

The best (albeit very weak) evidence in the U.S. comes from the National Basketball Association. Between March 11 and 19, a substantial number of NBA players and teams received testing. By March 19, 10 out of 450 rostered players were positive. Since not everyone was tested, that represents a lower bound on the prevalence of 2.2%. The NBA isnít a representative population, and contact among players might have facilitated transmission. But if we extend that lower-bound assumption to cities with NBA teams (population 45 million), we get at least 990,000 infections in the U.S. The number of cases reported on March 19 in the U.S. was 13,677, more than 72-fold lower. These numbers imply a fatality rate from Covid-19 orders of magnitude smaller than it appears.

How can we reconcile these estimates with the epidemiological models? First, the test used to identify cases doesnít catch people who were infected and recovered. Second, testing rates were woefully low for a long time and typically reserved for the severely ill. Together, these facts imply that the confirmed cases are likely orders of magnitude less than the true number of infections. Epidemiological modelers havenít adequately adapted their estimates to account for these factors.
The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, thatís a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.

This does not make Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is a far less severe problem than one that kills two million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide decisions now is critical. We donít know the true infection rate in the U.S. Antibody testing of representative samples to measure disease prevalence (including the recovered) is crucial. Nearly every day a new lab gets approval for antibody testing, so population testing using this technology is now feasible.

If weíre right about the limited scale of the epidemic, then measures focused on older populations and hospitals are sensible. Elective procedures will need to be rescheduled. Hospital resources will need to be reallocated to care for critically ill patients. Triage will need to improve. And policy makers will need to focus on reducing risks for older adults and people with underlying medical conditions.

A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.

Dr. Bendavid and Dr. Bhattacharya are professors of medicine at Stanford. Neeraj Sood contributed to this article.
flightmedic01 is offline  
Old 03-25-2020, 04:25 PM   #8  
Reserve
 
snolat's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Position: 73 FO
Posts: 50
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RAHkid94 View Post
how many people do you fly with are overweight or obese and have high blood pressure? Or smokers? How many diabetics in the general population? Something like 40% of the country is on high blood pressure meds.
I heard something like 60% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
snolat is offline  
Old 03-25-2020, 04:30 PM   #9  
Banned
 
Joined APC: Oct 2012
Posts: 68
Default

I know someone (non airline) that tested positive and within 72 hours after getting a fever he went into critical condition. This happened less than two days ago. Last night he was put on that anti malaria combination and as of tonight he is showing initial signs of recovery. Of course every case is different but I have read more and more stories of the drugs being effective. That would be excellent news if this works on everyone with the Covid-19.
Brainsurgeon is offline  
Old 03-25-2020, 04:34 PM   #10  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Shrek's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,595
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RAHkid94 View Post
how many people do you fly with are overweight or obese and have high blood pressure? Or smokers? How many diabetics in the general population? Something like 40% of the country is on high blood pressure meds.
They tend to be senior in their seat as well ....
Shrek is offline  
 
 
 

 
Post Reply
 



Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search


Related Topics
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Ethiopian 737 MAX 8 crash Opakapaka Safety 883 03-18-2020 11:21 PM
Deadly shipments tennesseeflyboy FedEx 0 08-14-2017 02:05 PM
The impossible & deadly turn Cubdriver Flight Schools and Training 14 06-15-2011 05:59 PM
Face-Off With a Deadly Predator Planespotta Hangar Talk 1 11-16-2009 11:04 AM
Deadly Express TipsyMcStagger Cargo 9 07-29-2006 02:22 PM


All times are GMT -8. The time now is 07:21 AM.