Originally Posted by
nuball5
Spot on. I fully expect about a 20%-25% furlough announcement sometime this summer. As bad as things are now, it’s about to get worse unfortunately.
Assuming bookings stay flatlined and we have social distancing extended through the summer?
I honestly feel like we are in the worst of the doom and gloom portion right now. Also remember even if someone wanted to travel today they couldn't (well, are strongly advised not to travel). I think the social distancing will end June 1, people will start traveling again during the summer and we will see at least an uptrend in capacity.
April -70%
May -70%
June -60%
July -50%
August -30%
Sept -20%
I think it would be a bad move to send guys to the street in October with bookings trending upwards, particularly since the breakeven point in a furlough is somewhere between 1-2 years. Zero furloughs for JB.
If leisure/VFR is the first to return we will likely see super low fares to stimulate demand again, and financials will generally suck compared to 2019, but we will see fuller planes.