Thread: Flow backs
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Old 04-02-2020, 10:20 AM
  #114  
chrisreedrules
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Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: CRJ FO
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Originally Posted by Happyflyer View Post
You know more about what carrier the capacity cuts will come from, or how big they will be system wide?

During your first 85% revenue cut rodeo you leaned how much capital spending it takes to move planes away from PSA and redeploy at another carrier, or you leaned how much the interest is on thier brand new 900s, vs letting another carrier take their 900's and do whatever they desire with them.

You've seen numbers that show you AA will have to fork out interest payments when Mesa's 900's sit idle when their contract expires?

Contract cost are 1 dimensional, and contract carrier cost go up when they reduce their fleet size. Even if Mesa has cheaper labor cost, to be lower out the door you'd have to throw in moving the planes over there, or idleing brand new ones with interest payments vs. letting Mesa shop a home for their planes no one needs.

You're on other forums suggesting a race to the bottomand to BK, like it's as easy as pushing a reset button with. The executives can easily loose control of the company, and any value of thier stock, if they reissue it.

Also you can't wash a labor contract by simply filling BK, it has to be part of a package a judge signs off on for the company to EXIT BK and still be solvent.

How can they Exit BK right now, with absolutely no info on revenue or passenger demand.

Right now if pilots flew for free the company would have to liquidate before it could reorganize down to 30% of itself without government bailouts. You are absolutely fear mongering, right now there is no cost point to achieve to be successful.
I know a great deal of things I don’t divulge on here in what is essentially a public forum. I didn’t say American will declare BK tomorrow. But the reality of taking the amount of loans that saving the AA operation will require will be nearly unrecoverable for the airline. Ed Bastian said some himself in his town hall yesterday. Regarding capacity cuts etc, I expect several thousand on the streets this fall from all the airlines including regionals. This will not be a, “V” shaped recovery. The demand isn’t simply going to bounce back.
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