Thread: How Soon Will COVID-19 Peak? (How To Tell)

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atpcliff , 04-02-2020 10:10 PM
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3Apr Cvirus Stats



Note: The death rate changes constantly, and the true death rate will not be known until the pandemic is over. The average death rate for the common flu, and the number of deaths per year from the flu, varies a lot each year, for a variety of reasons.



[US FLU Average Death Rate: 0.1]
Note: Tens of millions of US residents are vaccinated for the flu each year. We are hoping to get an emergency vaccine for the Cvirus available here in the US in 2021. Current worldwide stats for the Cvirus are without any vaccine.



Cvirus Death Rate:
South Korea: 0.03
Germany: 0.05
Canada: 0.07


Iran: 0.16

Worldwide: 0.20



Spain: 0.28

Belgium 0.29
France: 0.30



US Death Rate: 0.40

New York: 0.40
Average US Flu Deaths Yearly (CDC estimates 2011-2019): 37,400.
If the current death rate of 0.4 continues in the US, then we can expect about 150,000 US Cvirus deaths this year. If we can get it down to the current Worldwide death rate, we should expect about 75,000 US deaths.
Note: The estimated deaths are ONLY from the Cvirus, and doesn't count those who die of other causes, because medical personnel, hospital beds, ICU beds, operating rooms, etc. are not available. If we overrun our hospitals, then many people will die from accidents, diseases, ongoing medical issues, etc., that cannot get lifesaving medical care.



Italy Death Rate: 0.43
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