Old 04-09-2020, 12:25 PM
  #61  
VegasChris
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Joined APC: Jul 2017
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Originally Posted by LoneStar32 View Post
It's amazing how worse this all looks even in the short time from when this thread started. It is now looking like the pilot shortage even when factoring the retirements over the next 10 years is permanently gone, especially when considering the time it will take to recover from this and the inevitable restructuring.

Without hiring at the Majors, there will be little movement out of the Regionals. I expect their hiring needs to plummet over the next 5 years. That means mins for hiring will climb back up to what they were during the lost decade, i.e. 3500TT with at least 500ME.

That means many pilots will have to go the Part 135/91 route for a few years before being competitive for a Regional. It's amazing because just a month ago those operations were struggling to attract pilots. Now they will be flush with them for the next few years.

It seems like every week that goes by the pilot industry looks twice as worse as it did a week ago. It just keeps getting bleaker and bleaker.
I think its still too early to tell. April and May are really messed up. Deaths are not anywhere near what they modelled though. Travel might come back quicker than anticipated. Some scientist might get lucky with vaccine. Maybe the stimulus works.

Too many unknown factors right now when were are not even 6 weeks into this thing making predictions for an entire decade in the future
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