Originally Posted by
emersonbiguns
Just like they were over it on 3/15 and 4/4?
Can you explain how you know "they are over the peak" based upon a chart that clearly demonstrates your simplistic interpretation is nothing more than a guess that has a 50% chance of being correct.
I spent some time reading and trying to figure out what's going on in Sweden because at first glance it is interesting. It appears there's a couple interesting things going on...
1. Their data reporting is delayed over the weekends and tends to catch up midweek. When you look at the specific dates of the peaks and valleys in the charts, it appears to confirm this. (I would argue, at this point, a midweek data trend continues to show an increase. If you look at the weekend data, they are climbing as well but have slowed just a bit.)
2. They are starting to impose more restrictions currently. If they're "over the peak", why would they increase restrictions?
It's called the Farr law of epidemiology, and it is not an unreasoned analysis of the data. It's the same analysis used by the Nobel laureate Micheal Levitt who accurately predicted the death toll in Wuhan, China. True individual days may not fit the curve but the overall pattern is evident even before applying a Gaussian filter.
Farr, William, English medical statistician, 1807-1883.
Farr law - the curve of cases of an epidemic rises rapidly at first, then climbs slowly to a peak from which the fall is steeper than the previous rise.
It is also a pattern that has repeated itself quite nicely in many instances providing considerable evidence that COVID-19 does in fact follow the Farr law.
And, I would add relative to this thread the latest research is hinting that COVID-19 mortality rate may be very similar to that of the flu . . .
Preliminary German Study Shows a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate of about 0.4 Percent
Ronald Bailey 4.9.2020 -
Preliminary results are out from a COVID-19 case cluster study in one of the regions worst hit by Germany's coronavirus epidemic. They are somewhat reassuring.
One often-heard statistic is the "case fatality rate"—that is, the percentage of people diagnosed with a disease who will die of it. This afternoon that figure stands at 3.5 percent for COVID-19 in the U.S., but this rate is significantly inflated because it does not count asymptomatic cases or undiagnosed people who recover at home. What we really need to know is the infection fatality rate: the percentage of all the people infected who eventually die of the disease. That's what the German study attempts to do.
Over the last two weeks, German virologists tested nearly 80 percent of the population of Gangelt for antibodies that indicate whether they'd been infected by the coronavirus. Around 15 percent had been infected, allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37 percent. The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a while
-
-
Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates
The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine
Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR somewhere between 0.1% and 0.36%.*
-
-
COVID-19 Navigating the Uncharted
Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D.
The New England Journal of Medicine - March 26, 2020
This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968). . .