Originally Posted by
upup89
Yea I was somewhat confused by that comment in regards to 2 poor airlines creating a larger poor airline. Was he saying Frontier is a loser? I guess it lacks a bit of context...
Obviously some airlines are in better financial shape than others but I can’t imagine a year from now any of the major/legacies are dissolved.
-the context:
Waves of airline bankruptcies have left four airlines in control of about three-quarters of the U.S. market, but mergers of two weak companies anywhere, could create more problems, Franke warned.
Of note; he's much more bearish. None of the previous 'we're seeing a massive buying opportunity' of past comments.
-The industry will require much more support going forward
-They're looking at
borrowing from the government too.
-New aircraft deliveries deferred.
Clearly there's been an almost total absence of good news; although the horrific death toll is on the lower side of all estimates (albeit for the
first wave..)
Things aren't likely to be substantially improved by the time Stimulus #1 plays out. What will the Fed do. Good money after bad or another few trillion because there is light at the end of the tunnel?
The fact that 10/1 is weeks away from the general election also plays a huge role.
As far as 371FR and beyond; it's pretty clear Airbus will struggle to deliver to anything like the original time schedule anyway, so there's something of a synergy there. Deliveries (and hiring) probably at least 12 months out; 18-24 sound more likely.
It's great he's still talking Airlines; and working the problems, but the change in tone from a few weeks back is sobering..
//PL