https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/coronavirus-airline-investor-bill-franke-digs-in-for-a-slow-industry-recovery.html

 

Nice find. Of note, he mentions that they are not planning on canceling orders at this time, but are negotiating delivery timelines with Airbus. He anticipates a one to two year recovery timeline.

 

Given the current situation I’ll take interest in anything he’s saying publicly. He could be having a seizure and mumbling gibberish and I would still be trying to interpret it.

He apparently thinks there will be some big losers if another bailout isn’t down the road. And some of those losers can’t be saved by a simple merger, partners will need to be chosen wisely. He doesn’t sound very optimistic about our industry, as a whole, for the next couple years.

 

Yea I was somewhat confused by that comment in regards to 2 poor airlines creating a larger poor airline. Was he saying Frontier is a loser? I guess it lacks a bit of context...

Obviously some airlines are in better financial shape than others but I can’t imagine a year from now any of the major/legacies are dissolved.

 

-the context: Waves of airline bankruptcies have left four airlines in control of about three-quarters of the U.S. market, but mergers of two weak companies anywhere, could create more problems, Franke warned.

Of note; he's much more bearish. None of the previous 'we're seeing a massive buying opportunity' of past comments.
-The industry will require much more support going forward
-They're looking at borrowing from the government too.
-New aircraft deliveries deferred.

​​​​​​​Clearly there's been an almost total absence of good news; although the horrific death toll is on the lower side of all estimates (albeit for the first wave..)
Things aren't likely to be substantially improved by the time Stimulus #1 plays out. What will the Fed do. Good money after bad or another few trillion because there is light at the end of the tunnel?
The fact that 10/1 is weeks away from the general election also plays a huge role.

As far as 371FR and beyond; it's pretty clear Airbus will struggle to deliver to anything like the original time schedule anyway, so there's something of a synergy there. Deliveries (and hiring) probably at least 12 months out; 18-24 sound more likely.

It's great he's still talking Airlines; and working the problems, but the change in tone from a few weeks back is sobering..

//PL

 

”They're looking at borrowing from the government too.”

I noticed the loan option Statement as well, I don’t think they wanted to go that route at the start but definitely not the “V” recovery they were hoping for last month.

thanks Aero 1900 for posting the link very interesting insight indeed...